Now that fall has officially arrived, many in the healthcare industry are bracing for what could be a new wave of the coronavirus within our borders.  Many of our students are back at school, and some fear this may trigger a new spike in COVID cases throughout the country.  In addition, one doctor speaking on this subject in the major media this week indicated that the COVID transmission rate is expected to rise simply due to the cooler temperatures.  Add to this the general controversy surrounding the nature of, and treatment for, this virus that we’ve witnessed since its inception, and you have the makings of a whole new season of speculation and confusion.

The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) didn’t ease this potential for speculation and confusion when it recently put up new information on its website concerning the method by which the virus is spread, only to take it down within 48 hours.  So, what are decision-makers at hospitals and health systems to do as they look to the concluding months of 2020?  What steps should they be taking?  Perhaps they must first get a better picture of what to expect.

Second Wave About to Roll?

According to a September 5 article in The Washington Post, “Infectious-disease experts are warning of a potential cold-weather surge of coronavirus cases — a long-feared ‘second wave’ of infections and deaths, possibly at a catastrophic scale.”  The Post continued, “The warnings from researchers come at a moment when, despite a rise in cases in the Upper Midwest, national numbers have been trending downward at a slow pace for several weeks following the early-summer surges in the Sun Belt.”

Others agree there will be a second wave this fall, but may not envision the same “catastrophic scale,” as reported by the Post.  Appearing on local WBZ-TV in Boston, epidemiologist Dr. Shira Doron at Tufts Medical Center stated that some increase in COVID cases is inevitable due to the cooler fall temperatures.  However, she went on to speculate that the rise in cases may not be as severe as what we saw this past spring.  “It’s very unlikely that we would see a surge in the sense that we did back in March/April where the rate of rise was so dramatic,” she said.

A Double Whammy?

That’s all well and good, assuming Dr. Doron’s speculation turns out to be correct, but what about dealing with a potentially moderate jump in COVID cases in addition to dealing with the full-on effects of the traditional flu season—expected to begin in October in the U.S.?  This potential for a “twindemic,” as some are calling it, may put new strains on hospital staffs not seen in some time.  According to an article posted last week on the ScienceNews website, influenza hospitalizations in the U.S. since 2010 have ranged between 140,000 and 810,000 individuals.  Adding these numbers to expected coronavirus cases this fall may present the perfect storm for those tasked with hospital resource management.  Nevertheless, some appear ready for the storm.  According to a spokesman for Tufts Medical Center—which is currently running at “80 percent occupancy”—the facility will be able to handle the combination of COVID and common flu patients expected to come their way in the next few weeks.

Others are optimistic that the perfect storm will break apart before it reaches our shores.  ScienceNews points out that influenza forecasters in the Northern Hemisphere base much of their prognostications on the levels of flu occurring in the middle of the year in the Southern Hemisphere.  If those living below the equator have a relatively mild flu season mid-year, then that’s usually an indication the U.S. will have smaller numbers of flu patients during our fall and winter.  Reportedly, the Southern Hemisphere has had a mild flu season this year, which augers well for hospitals in the U.S.  In addition, the flu season may also be milder than usual in the Northern Hemisphere as a result of reduced travel, according to former CDC director Tom Frieden.  Others point out that the already ubiquitous use of masks and social distancing due to COVID should help to suppress normal flu transmissions.

Preparation and Optimism

As reported by WBZ-TV in Boston, Tufts Medical Center is already in the planning stages for the impact of a second wave of COVID.  This includes stockpiling personal protective equipment (PPE) and “bolstering testing.”  What’s fascinating about Tufts’ approach is that “this time, they hope to treat novel coronavirus patients without canceling elective procedures for other patients.”  It is uncertain how many hospitals will be following this same model.

In another indication of where hospitals stand as far as preparations for this fall, the September 18 edition of The Wall Street Journal noted that “U.S. hospitals expect to be better prepared if a second wave of Covid-19 cases hits in coming months, doctors and administrators say, after gaining a better understanding how to triage patients, which drugs to use and what supplies are needed.”

In summation, many remain hopeful that, while there may be a spike in COVID cases this fall due to school resumption and cooler temperatures: (a) hospitals will be in a better position to handle such cases, (b) the flu season may prove less of a problem this year, and (c) there may be hope for those seeking elective surgery to receive the care they need.

If we can assist you in your preparation for fall cases, please reach out to us at info@miramedgs.com.  We want to be your partner in finding solutions that work.